Are you looking to beat the odds and win big betting on NFL games this NFL regular season? Do you plan on making your own NFL bets or will you seek help from NFL handicapping service or friend? If paying for picks is out of the question you may want to try free NFL computer picks. They are a great resource for those who need a bit help with their NFL picks.
To understand NFL picks, you first need to know why Vegas and online sportsbooks create betting lines and odds. Simply put, these exist to attract equal betting action on both teams in a matchup. The sportsbook makes money by taking a commission (vigorish) off each losing bet. By setting lines and odds, they aim to get the public to bet evenly on both sides.
NFL point spreads represent an estimated margin of victory to create a virtual tie or "pick'em" game. The Patriots must defeat Miami by a margin greater than 7 in order to cover the spread if New England is a 7-point favorite. Miami can cover by losing by fewer than 7 or winning outright.
NFL moneylines represent odds for picking each team straight up. Typical NFL moneylines look like this:
New England Patriots -250 Miami Dolphins +210
The favored Patriots need a $250 bet to win $100, while the underdog Dolphins return $210 on a $100 wager. Higher positive numbers indicate bigger underdogs.
Now that you understand why lines exist, let's explore ways to use them for winning picks.
Experts make NFL picks by analyzing line movements and identifying when Vegas oddsmakers and public betting trends don't align.
Sharp bettors target overvalued or undervalued teams based on line changes. If a team opens as a 3-point favorite then quickly moves to -7, experts may see betting value in the underdog catching extra points compared to the opening line.
It's also important to examine public betting percentages. If 90% of bets are coming in on the favored Packers -7 at home, an expert may look to fade the public by taking the undervalued underdog plus the points.
Situational spots like potential letdowns or lookahead games for favorites also influence expert picks. Coaches don't like to admit it, but these trap spots are real in the NFL. Wise guys pounce by taking points with motivated underdogs against overconfident favorites.
Seasoned experts don't just spew football knowledge; they take a systematic approach using proven strategies. Here are some tips the pros use:
Focus on schedule spots: Coaches rarely admit it, but certain scheduling spots produce predictable results. Divisional games after long road trips often lead to outright upsets. Also target potential letdown situations after big wins or look-ahead spots before rivalry games.
Follow line moves: Keep an eye on line movements during the week and target inflated favorites and inflated underdogs based on the action. Pros pounce when they see obvious overadjustments.
Fade public trends: Typically, it's wise to target unpopular underdogs when the NFL betting percentages get heavily skewed to one side. Not always, but often, teams with lopsided support fail to cover.
Bet on rested favorites: Teams playing on extra rest in advantageous scheduling spots tend to outperform expectations. For example, favorites returning from a bye week against a team on a short week
Pick your spots with dogs: Betting on dogs blindly is risky. Focus on getting points with motivated home dogs, divisional dogs, and dogs with coaching or QB edges.
Now that you're armed with expert strategies for this NFL season, let's get to this week's top free NFL picks and predictions.
Betting against the spread allows you to bet on teams while getting a handicap of points to make the game evenly matched.
Betting NFL totals lets you wager simply on whether the game score will be over or under a set line without picking the winner.
NFL moneylines allow you to bet on teams to win straight up, providing underdogs much higher payouts than favorites.
NFL prop bets allow you to wager on specific outcomes like player performances that go beyond just picking the game winner.
NFL parlays enable you to combine multiple picks into one bet for much higher payouts, though you must get all your selections correct.
Here are the final tips for making winning 2023 NFL picks this NFL week:
Focus on moneyline underdogs in close games rather than heavy chalk.
Don't force bets on every single game.
Always shop for the best lines using multiple sportsbooks.
Keep your unit bets small in relation to your bankroll.
Stay disciplined with stakes, and booster's remorse of "would've, could've, should've" will disappear. You'll be shocked at how quickly your betting success stacks up after following this advice.
Now go make those winning 2023 NFL picks with confidence. Let me know how your NFL betting goes in chat room this season!
Beating the oddsmakers requires knowledge, discipline, and contrarian thinking. Use the resources outlined above to make informed bets by learning expert strategies. Take advantage of the free NFL picks and predictions from proven analysts.
You may give yourself the best chances of winning by going with a seasoned NFL experts to give you an edge with your 2023 NFL picks
Making winning NFL predictions is difficult. There are numerous considerations to take into account when 32 teams play 17 games during a regular season, including injuries, coaching changes, and team scheduling. Even specialists can't consistently predict winners over 55%. Getting suggestions from dependable experts that live and breathe football analysis, though, can significantly increase your chances of success.
Following expert picks can give you valuable insights from professionals who devote huge amounts of time to handicapping matchups. Their systems may uncover trends and edges against the betting lines. This helps bettors make more informed wagers.
Here are various aspects to take into account and investigate: the number of points a team scores, yards gained per offensive play and yielded per defensive play, turnover margin, quarterback performance rating, the influence of injuries on key players, coaches' track records in tight matches, disparities between performances at home and on the road, and the frequency with which teams meet betting expectations.
You pick NFL games against the spread by studying team trends, statistics, and mismatches to identify potential edges against inflated point spreads. Make informed, selective picks based on an edge you've uncovered rather than betting randomly.
The best NFL bets to make are large point spread mismatches, where advanced stats indicate that the spread is inflated, can provide good betting value in the NFL. Also, betting unders on low total lines (under 40 points) has been profitable historically, since lower scoring NFL games tend to go under the projected point total.
Although our NFL free picks are made by experts who take a look at the league, conduct research on it, and apply their experience and expertise in this field, they still remain predictions. This means that there's no way anyone can guarantee success. NFL games can be completely unexpected sometimes because of injuries or sudden situations out of nowhere at the last moment. That can affect the entire outcome of the game.
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