MLB Picks for Today: May 16, 2024

Baseball is known as America's pastime for good reason - it's one of the most popular sports for fans and bettors alike. With a 162 game regular season, there are plenty of opportunities to place wagers on MLB games. However, consistently making winning MLB picks is easier said than done. Baseball can be unpredictable, and the long season means there are many factors that can impact a team's performance on any given day. For bettors looking to profit off MLB betting, having a strategy and understanding key information is crucial. Here are some tips on making winning MLB picks:

Know the 2024 MLB Teams Inside and Out

The more knowledge you have about the teams, players, coaches and trends, the better your chances of making an informed wager. Pay close attention to power rankings, stats and team news so you can identify when a team might be over or undervalued. Study pitching rotations, bullpen strength, home and away records, lineup changes and injuries. Granular details like a lineup missing its best hitter or an ace pitcher on the mound can majorly impact the outcome of a game.

Shop For the Best May 16, 2024 MLB Lines

The betting lines and odds will vary across sportsbooks. Comparing the different markets and shopping for the best price on your desired wager is vital to maximizing your edge. A half point difference in the spread or 20 cent difference in the moneyline odds can end up deciding your bet. Some spots will be slower to adjust their lines based on news like weather changes or roster moves - staying up to date gives you an opportunity to get the best number.

Focus on MLB Value

Wagering on big favorites with very low odds may seem safe, but the possible payout is also very low. Conversely, huge underdogs have a low probability of winning but offer a large return. To make profitable MLB picks, you ideally want to identify spots where the odds are misaligned with your perceived chances of that outcome occurring. Finding value opportunities where teams are over or underpriced is the key to beating the bookies.

Use Advanced Metrics

Basic stats like team records and batting averages have some utility, but they don't tell the whole story. Advanced analytics that may not be as well known to casual fans can give you an edge. Metrics like FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), hard hit rate, exit velocity, xWOBA and xBA can reveal whether a hitter or pitcher has been lucky/unlucky. Luck eventually evens out, so you can capitalize by betting on players likely to regress.

Monitor Lineups and Pitching Matchups

Teams rotate through different starting pitchers and position players frequently, so it's essential to check who will be on the field before placing your bets. Some hitters perform drastically better against lefties or righties, for example. Pitching matchups also play a huge role - an ace vs. a middle reliever forced into starting is a mismatch to exploit. Pay close attention to probable starters, bullpen availability and handedness of pitchers compared to batters.

Bet Against Streaks

The public loves to bet on hot teams on winning streaks and against ice cold teams on big losing skids. However, win/loss streaks often result in inefficient lines that overvalue or undervalue teams. A team winning 10 straight is not necessarily more likely to win their next game. Betting against the public perception by taking streaking teams to regress or faded teams to bounce back can provide great risk/reward opportunities.

Watch for Situational Spots

Some specific game situations can affect a team's performance and provide potential value. For example, playoff spots being on the line, travel schedules resulting in fatigue, revenge games against a division rival, next-day day games after night games, and letting down after playing elite teams are all situations that can influence betting decisions. Being aware of these spots and their typical impact can lead to more profitable picks.

Keep Bankroll Management in Mind

Proper bankroll management is vital to betting longevity. Having a plan for your bankroll and wager sizing ensures you live to fight another day even on losing streaks. Never wager more than 1-3% of your bankroll on a single play, and ensure you have at least 100 bets at your normal stake to endure variance. Bankroll management allows you to stay disciplined, confident and level-headed while picking games.

Do Your Research

There are a ton of handicappers and resources for getting picks and information. However, the best approach is combining your own research with trusted external sources. Many picks and takes are unsupported by genuine analysis. Don't blindly tail picks without understanding the reasoning and metrics behind them. Mixing detailed research with capping experts who back up opinions with data is optimal.

Stay Disciplined and MLB Bet Selectively

Handicapping MLB can be done effectively for only a few matchups per day. The schedule is packed, but there's rarely more than 5-10 high-value opportunities worth betting on. Being extremely selective and passing on less desirable spots is prudent. Staying disciplined enough to pick your spots based on your criteria allows you to wait for the best risk/reward scenarios. You don't have to bet on every game to be a profitable bettor.

Gear Up for the Long Haul

MLB spans over 6 months and has one of the largest sample sizes of any major sport. There will inevitably be big swings, highs and lows over the marathon season. No matter how sound your approach, variance will result in losing periods. A level-headed, disciplined and steadfast approach tailored to finding value is necessary to make profitable picks over the long run. One day or week means little in the grand scheme - it's all about the bottom line at season's end.

Recap

Making consistent MLB picks is no easy task given the length of the season and number of factors in play. But having an analytical approach based on finding value, understanding advanced metrics, tracking team trends, monitoring lineups, schedules and situations, and practicing proper bankroll management can pay big dividends. There's no substitute for doing thorough research and only betting when the odds align with your projections. A disciplined, selective and value-based approach will make you more likely to come out ahead on America's pastime over the long haul.