What is EV in Sports Betting: Positive Expected Value Betting Explained

Sports betting can seem complicated to beginners with all the different bet types, betting lines, and ways to calculate true odds and payouts. One key concept that is crucial for becoming a successful sports bettor in the sports betting industry is understanding expected value (EV). But what exactly does EV mean in the context of sports betting?

Everything you need to know about EV betting including what it is, why it matters, and how to use it to make profitable wagers will be explained here. Understanding expected value is one of the keys to long-term winning in online sports betting so read on to gain this vital knowledge.

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What Does EV and Positive EV Mean in Betting

EV stands for "expected value". In statistics, expected value is the mean profit or loss from a bet made multiple times. For our purposes, we can simplify EV as the average net gain or loss per bet if that bet placed many times over.

Positive expected value (+EV) refers to bets where you stand to gain money on average over many instances. Negative expected value (-EV) indicates average losses over time. As a profitable bettor, you want to identify and make +EV bets to gain an edge.

Why Expected Value or EV Sports Betting Matters

Expected value is important because making positive EV bets enables you to earn money in the long run. If you only make wagers with -EV, you will lose money over time regardless of your knowledge or expected value betting strategy. To be able to find positive EV betting opportunities is the key for any successful sports bettor.

While factors like your sports knowledge and money management skills impact your betting success, having a +EV on your wagers over the long term ultimately determines if you can make a profit. Getting an edge through EV betting separates gambling from investing and the professionals from the amateurs.

How Do You Calculate Expected Value in Betting?

Below is the formula to determine expected value for a wager. You can also use an expected value calculator to make this calculation easier.

EV = (Probability of Winning x Payout) - (Probability of Losing x Stake)

To put this in concrete terms, let's look at a hypothetical bet:

The probability you assessed of winning is 60%
The payout odds are -120 or $83 profit per $100 wagered
The probability of losing is 40%
Your stake is $100

Plugging this into the EV formula:

EV = (0.60 x $83) - (0.40 x $100) = $49.80 - $40 = +$9.80

This shows a +EV bet since the expected value is positive. While the calculation requires estimating win probability and assessing odds properly, this example illustrates how EV betting works on a fundamental level.

Find a Positive Expected Value or Positive EV Bets

How do you actually find the best sports bets with +EV in real betting markets? Here are some strategies and tips that will help:

Review best odds and lines at multiple sportsbooks to find discrepancies and value
Perform careful analysis to estimate probabilities better than the implied odds
Look for favorable odds on longshot upsets that have a better chance to win than implied
Target specific bet types like props that are harder for bookmakers to price accurately
Take advantage of line movement and betting trends to identify incorrect lines
Use data modeling and technology to gain insights and projections

The key is uncovering opportunities where the real probability exceeds what the odds represent. These market signals indicate the odds and lines set by the market are suboptimal, presenting opportunities to take advantage of.

What Are Some Strategies to Increase EV and Betting Odds on Betting Sites

Some methods to increase expected value:

Bet against inaccurate point spreads where your projection differs significantly from the line.
Leverage welcome bonuses and promos from sportsbooks when EV is positive.
Take advantage of line mistakes and late line movement.
Bet underdog when the payout outweighs the lower win probability.
Focus on specific profitable bet types like moneylines vs. high-vig parlay.

The key is flexibility. When making every bet, use EV to guide your wagers, but be ready to jump on mispriced opportunities.

Common Bet Types and How to Calculate Their Expected Value

To find +EV bets for a sporting event, you need to understand the key bet types available and how to analyze their expected value:

Spreads

Point spread bets involve wagering on a team to cover or not cover a set margin set by oddsmakers. With spreads like Browns -3.5 vs Bengals, the Browns must win by 4+ points to cover. Spreads often have -110 or -105 odds on both sides. Calculate EV based on your projected margin compared to the spread and the small vigorish.

Totals (Over/Unders)

Totals bets allow you to wager on the combined points scored going over or under a set line. For example, a total of 45 points with -110 odds. Estimate the projected total using stats and modeling then compare to the posted total to find +EV based on the vig and your win probability.

Moneylines

Moneyline or win bet odds are expressed with either a + or - representing underdogs and favorites. Positive odds show potential profit, negative odds show how much must be risked to win $100. Assess win probability, convert moneyline to fractional odds, and calculate EV accordingly.

Player and Game Props

Propositions like player performance totals or game occurrences often carry -110 or -120 odds. Estimate probability compared to implied odds and expected payout to make +EV bets. More variance but opportunity to exploit incorrect props.

Using EV Bet to Make Profitable Sports Bets

Now that you know how to calculate EV for the major bet types, here is a summary of key tips for using it to make profitable sports wagers:

Only place bets with a rigorously determined positive EV
Bet proportionate to the edge to maximize EV
Look for ODDS axing lines, props and secondary markets with highest EV
Leverage data modeling and technology to gain analytical advantages
Develop disciplined money management to weather variance
Remain patient and committed through ups and downs
Keep improving analysis skills and probability estimates

Making +EV sports bets and avoiding temptation -EV wagers represent the formula for succeeding as a sports bettor over the long run.

How Does Vigorish (Vig) Impact an Expected Value Bet?

Vigorish or vig in sports betting, is the fee charged every sportsbook charge on wagers. It's typically built into the odds as the difference between the risked amount and potential profit. Higher vigs lower EV.

For example, a -110 spread with 10% vig:

EV = (Win Prob * -105) - (Lose Prob * -110)

The vig shifts the EV downward compared to a bet with no vig. Lower vigs increase EV.

How Do You Know If a Bet Has Negative EV?

A wager with negative expected value is one where the implied probability from the odds is lower than your projected probability. If the  price of a sportsbook overestimates a probability, it creates -EV.

For example, if you project only a 30% chance for a -300 favorite to win, the bet has negative EV:

0.3 * (Stake / Odds) - 0.7 * Stake 0.3 * ($300 / 1.33) - 0.7 * $300 = -$60

Avoiding -EV spots is just as crucial as finding +EV. Stick to positive situations.

Can You Still Profit from Negative EV Bets?

While negative EV wagers produce net losses over time, it doesn't mean they never win. Outcomes are probabilistic, so -EV bets can still occasionally win in the short term due to variance.

The key is not staking too heavily on -EV spots based on one-off results. Profitable betting requires consistently making +EV wagers aligned with your win probability estimates.

Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Make When Assessing Expected Value

As important as using EV analysis properly is avoiding traps and flaws that can lower your edge:

Assuming 50/50 probability because odds are -110 on both sides
Basing probability estimates on feelings rather than data
Neglecting to account for the vig in EV calculations
Failing to adjust probabilities after line movement
Overestimating your bet prediction accuracy
Placing correlated parlays that appear +EV but carry more risk
Betting more than optimal amount on +EV wagers
Chasing losses by making reckless -EV bets trying to get even

Avoiding these EV pitfalls takes honesty, discipline, and constantly checking biases.

Key Takeaways - Why Find Expected Value in Sports Betting

To recap the key points on why expected value is such a crucial concept for sports betting:

EV represents average per bet profit or loss over many instances
Making +EV bets enables you to earn money long-term
EV leads to certain losses over time regardless of other factors
Calculating EV requires estimating win or lose probability and assessing odds
Finding value requires identifying discrepancies between probability and implied odds
Using EV analysis and avoiding biases is key to betting success
Making only +EV wagers and betting optimal amounts equals profit

Understanding expected value provides a bettor the framework for making intelligent wagers. While subject to variance in the short run, over time making bets with a positive expected value will increase your chance of winning and make you a winning sports bettor.

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!