When Should You Lay the Chalk?

In sports betting, the term "laying the chalk" refers to betting on the favorite or expected winner in a matchup. The favorite is called the "chalk" because their odds are usually denoted with a - symbol and the number is written in chalk at sportsbooks. For example, if Team A is a -200 favorite over Team B, Team A is considered the "chalk." As a bettor, laying the chalk means betting on the favored team.

There are a few key factors to consider when deciding whether or not to lay the chalk in sports betting:

The Odds

The odds offered on the favorite indicate their implied probability of winning. The heavier the favorite, the shorter the odds. For very large favorites, the potential payout may not justify the risk. Betting big chalk (-500 favorites or more) requires risking a lot to win a little. However, more reasonable chalk lines (-200 to -400) can offer solid returns if handicapped properly.

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The Matchup 

How much of an advantage does the favorite truly have? What is the talent differential between the teams? Some matchups feature big name teams that attract casual bettor money, inflating the lines beyond what is reasonable. In these cases, betting against the public on the underdog can have value. However, make sure to still handicap matchups thoroughly.

Situational Factors

Things like injuries, scheduling, travel, weather, and more can level the playing field in certain matchups. If situational edges benefit the underdog, consider fading the chalk. But if the favorite still holds major advantages, don't automatically assume the underdog is a good bet.

Your Own Handicapping 

Do your own homework and analysis on games. Develop informed opinions on appropriate lines for each matchup. If your assessment differs significantly from the oddsmakers, then opportunities may exist to exploit those differences. But only bet against chalk you determine is overvalued through your own handicapping process.

Moneyline Versus Spread 

Moneyline wagers on big favorites offer very little profit margin but require winning outright. Point spread bets allow you to fade chalk teams while still getting +EV odds. Spread betting is preferable in many chalk situations.

Bankroll Management 

Don't risk too large a percentage of your bankroll on any single bet, especially when fading big favorites. Have a staking plan and bet size/allocation system in place. Be disciplined and bet the same amounts regardless of public perceptions.

Staying Objective 

Remove bias from your betting process. Don't assume favorites or underdogs are always the right side. Approach each matchup with an open mind based on matchups, value, and your own handicapping. Don't bet chalk just because they are popular public teams.

In summary, laying the chalk can be a viable betting strategy when the favorite is reasonably priced and holds clear advantages. But it requires selectively picking spots through sharp handicapping analysis. There are also many situations where fading public chalk teams has value. Successful sports bettors make informed decisions based on matchups, value, and bankroll management principles. They don't blindly follow public money but remain objective and flexible based on their own assessment of each game's dynamics.

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!