How To Use Game Odds to Pick Winners

Probabilities present sports bettors with a quantifiable measure of the extent to which something is possible. In a typical sports betting situation, probabilities are a statistical measure of the likelihood of a team achieving a certain outcome, usually a winning probability. This mathematical estimation is expressed as a decimal or in percentage form. 

There is no guarantee of success with a high probability of occurrence. In statistics, there are simply likelihoods or probabilities of certain events occurring. For example, we often hear that you’re more likely to get struck by lightning than to die in an aircraft disaster. 

But that doesn’t mean that one or other event will not happen to you in your lifetime. Sports punters and casino players are known for their penchant for numbers. Let’s take a look!

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The Case for Picking Winners Between Team A or Team B in a Sports Match

For example, in a contest between Team A and Team B, the probability of the latter winning may be expressed as 0.68. This indicates that Team B has a 68% chance of winning compared to Team A's 32% chance of winning. This is not a guarantee of victory; it’s simply a statistical model that runs a large number of times and yields a certain outcome, with Team B winning 68 times out of 100. 

In sports betting, there are three distinct types of probabilities. These are known as moneyline, decimal, and fractional. Players use these probabilities to make informed decisions about individual competitors or teams. Here are the three measures:

Moneyline: These odds have a +/minus button. The + indicates a lower probability with a higher payout.

Decimal Odds – these odds represent the payout for every dollar wager. So, odds of 4.0 indicate a payout of $400 for a $100 bet.

Fractional odds – these are written as a fraction, such as 4/1.

Bookmakers always ensure their profit, regardless of which bets are placed. When bookmakers create odds, the sum of the probabilities is always greater than 100. That is the bookmaker’s profit over the round, a.k.a. that’s why a punter who bets $100 on each team will lose money even if one of the bets wins.

This is known as the built-in house edge; every game on a for-profit platform has one. It’s a courtesy fee that players are prepared to pay for the privilege to enjoy the games. The same is true with casino games. 

Whether it’s a traditional casino, online casino, or social casino is secondary to the fact that a house edge always exists. Every game, where fiat currency, cryptocurrency, or faux currency is used invariably contends with a house edge.

Choosing Games with the Best Return to Player (RTP) Rates

Assuming you are playing at HelloMillions social casino and looking for games with a lower house edge. Since casinos are unlikely to promote all their low-house edge games, it’s worth understanding and remembering which games invariably have a low-house edge. These often include games with an element of skill or strategy. Note that there are no casino games based entirely on skill or strategy. At the very best, they are hybrid games.

Right off the bat, strategy-based games like blackjack, poker, and video poker present players with the lowest house edge and the highest possible return-to-player percentages. When perfect strategy is employed, the RTP (Return to Player Percentage) on classic blackjack can be as high as 99% plus. 

This means that for every 100 in real or fake bets, you can expect to win back 99 units over the long term. It’s a better proposition than a progressive jackpot game like Mega Moolah slot game with an 88% RTP.

From a strategic point of view, players have a little wiggle room when picking winning games. If for example, you pick a low RTP slot machine game, you cannot change the return to the player, but you can manage how many coins you play on each spin. 

You can regulate your win/loss ratio through your budget and maximize the utility value of your gaming sessions. You can raise or decrease the number of coins per spin to achieve the ideal balance.

Most of the posturing from players takes place before a game is selected. It is foolhardy to pick games with low returns. Choosing options with higher returns is much better because the probability of winning is much greater. Regarding progressive jackpot games, the jackpot cannot be hit if maximum coins are not played. For example, all five coins should be played in a video poker game to win the maximum possible payout. These are simply commonsense strategies that players employ when choosing different types of games.

Table games like roulette have a wide range of RTPs. American Roulette is a hot favorite, but it has a high house edge of 5.26%. It is far better to play European Roulette at 2.70%, or even French Roulette with a house edge as low as 1.35%. These number-crunching tips will always serve you well over the long term. Play with confidence; the numbers don’t lie!

I (AKA CatBurg) have a lifelong passion for sports, especially football and basketball. I enjoy the thrill and excitement of sports betting and everything in between. My teams are (Packers #GoPackGo) and who I am betting on!